Kenyans are now witnessing an eminent rift in Jubilee party and it is obvious that the same, is now at the point of splitting into two and thereafter forcing Ruto to quit just before his term come to a close. He is likely to revert to his URP, and thereafter form alliances with other existing or new political parties when elections time come.
The way things stand now is like Ruto is the official opposition candidate who is trying all he can to get inroads in areas where Jubilee have the majority votes and by using his immense wealth to woo the desperate poor Kenyans, he is somehow succeeding.
On the other hand, the Uhuru and Raila team are not changing any time soon, and all are geared to ensure that the magic handshake, will become a continuous thing and thus, making the winner takes it all, a thing of the past.
Uhuru seem to have good advisers and he is doing all he can to make it law for the losing party to be included in the formation of any future Government. That is his silent legacy when he stress that people should feel free to live anywhere even beyond the year 2050.
William Ruto now has realized that the promise the two had during the campaign period, was overshadowed and consumed by the handshake in the sake of unity, and the same, does not exist anymore, except in new and old songs.
The only problem facing the initiative, is the fact that Ruto still have a majority following which is forcing Jubilee to have no choice, but to accommodate him, but the hustler is not in anyway prepared to work with Raila now, or in future.
All the same, if he refuses, Jubilee will still try to sideline him and form alliances with other smaller tribes which may result to dividing votes mostly in Central and unless the 25% rule is changed, we may not have an outright winner and might end up with a costly re-run.
If that scenario does not happen, Deputy President William Ruto, remains the strongest candidate to succeed President Uhuru Kenyatta and whether BBI will be implemented or not, he will be a force to reckon with.
President Uhuru and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) party leader Raila Odinga have already affirmed their support for the BBI, claiming that it is the only way to bring peace and end winner takes it all type of Government. Many see that as killing the opposition entirely, but violence occurrences and tribal animosity after past two elections have convinced many that it is the only wise thing to do.
The whole picture is to form a Government of National Unity and more so, to safeguard their much accumulated wealth. The Uhuru family and the Muranga and Kiambu tycoons yielding power, are focusing beyond 2050 and the only way to do it, is to make the BBI into law so that after every election, the losing side will be cooperating always and thus resulting to no chaos to affect their businesses.
On his part, DP Ruto and his cohorts were on record vowing to oppose the BBI and any referendum calls, but they somehow sensed defeat and agreed to back it on conditions and deals not yet revealed. The only danger now is, if between now and 2022, a referendum is held and assuming that Ruto oppose the same, it may work out not in his favor, as the Raila faction can split the country into two.
Ruto had opposed the proposed constitutional amendments during the 2010 constitution amendments that made him earn a huge political milestones, but all the same, he finally lost in the bid. He may have used that memory to arrive at the conclusion not to strongly oppose the BBI, but his body language at Bomas, told a different story to the effect that he was not for the idea.
If the referendum fails and all agree to the implementation of BBI, Ruto will still be the winner, but not as he had envisaged for he will somehow have to shake hands with someone, just like Uhuru did.
The other person who will still be yielding power though not in the Government will be no other than Uhuru as he will still remain the party leader of Jubilee and all elected under the party will still continue to be his choir boys.
That is the scenario that is defined by the BBI and many now are certain that it is mainly a tool for keeping intact the political elite while at the same time safeguarding the interest of all future outgoing Presidents. Jubilee Party is just like a two way sword and all are smiling all the way being certain that even if Ruto decide to run with his old party, they will still get the Prime Minister position.
They are simply solving ethnic antagonism and competition which they deem major threats to Kenya’s success and continuity and they reason that all that is brought about by the winner take it all system. In their reasoning, the focus is not competition but to come up with a more consociation model that works best for ethnically divided marginalized societies.
It may be a good model but the same will eventually destroy opposition politics and loose the meaning of checks and balances and with time, the country may slowly drift to a one party dictatorial state if not watched.
We may have to go back to the drawing table and in my view, devolution that will have a true meaning will be the final solution to the country that is now so much divided along tribal lines.
KENYAN PARENTS IN USA
BOARD MEMBER C.O.D.U.
PRESIDENT OF DIASPORA NATIONAL ASSEMBLY